🛢️ CRUDE OIL — SHARP SELL-OFF
WTI below $70 | Brent below $74, lowest since late February
Why crude is collapsing 👇
🕊️ US-Iran interim deal signed — Peace framework now in force; Washington lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports, Tehran agrees to reopen Hormuz — removing the supply shock that drove prices up over 60% from pre-war levels
🚢 Tanker traffic surging through Hormuz — Shipowners openly transiting the waterway with live satellite signals after the IMO secured formal safety guarantees for navigation; thousands of stranded seafarers now cleared to exit the Gulf
🇦🇪 Gulf producers flooding spot markets — ADNOC offloaded at least 48 million barrels of spot crude recently; Kuwait Petroleum and Iraq's SOMO also releasing a wave of prompt cargoes, overwhelming near-term demand
📉 Physical benchmarks deep in discount — Cash Dubai, Oman, Murban, the entire Middle East complex in contango
🏭 Asian refiners already covered — Buyers in the East booked forward through August; no appetite for incremental barrels, killing the prompt bid entirely
🇬🇧 Atlantic Basin cracking too — North Sea Forties collapsed from a record +$21.50 premium in April to -$1.00 to Dated Brent; West African and European grade discounts widening in tandem
🚫 Zero Hormuz tolls — Trump confirmed Iran agreed to no fees, no insurance charges, no transit costs for vessels, eliminating the last uncertainty over passage economics
⛽ UAE output near full recovery — IEA data shows UAE exports rebounding to roughly 85% of pre-war levels, with roughly 60 million barrels shipped from the Persian Gulf in recent weeks
⚠️ Bottom line: A market that spent four months pricing scarcity is now repricing abundance. Supply shock reversal in full force, bears firmly in control.
